I generally agree with you. I don’t think this will have a significant impact on overall browser share (in the short to medium term).
I was hinting at the “positioning” effects from this decision. Over the past few years Google has been slowly transforming into a degenerate American megacorp. Their posture around manifest V3 suggests that in the near future we will see an exponential increase in borderline criminal behavior (I personally consider their status in browser market a criminal monopoly - criminal in the moral sense not US judicial BS). We now know that the emperor has no clothes.
With that in mind, I think this particular decision could be an inflection point where any reasonably tech-savvy person has to recognize the danger of Google (and by extension all other American corps). First it will be the geeks and then … who knows?
And you have to consider that in general the global trend has been towards increase skepticism of both American tech companies and the ideology that allows them operate in the way they do. I don’t remember anyone questioning the tech companies or even American-style authoritarian mercantilism in the 2000s or even early 2010s. Yet now, even some casual, non-technical users recognize the dangers of FB et al. (even if they don’t stop using it).
I recognize that I am being a little bit wishy-washy with all these quasi-historical tangents and extrapolations, but hey, that’s the way history works. You win win win, but then if all you have is BS (and money to promote that BS), one day you will lose. When that happens all bets are off.
On some level I am glad things are going the way are. It means the “opposition” is full of shit. They literally can’t control themselves because reasons. Google would have lost nothing from continuing to support the dynamic content filter API, yet a bunch of greedy, self-absorbed assholes decided to pull a quick one. That shows they are over-confident and they don’t really grasp what they are dealing with. They think they can indefinitely BS their way through this.
We’ll see what happens.